Danimal's blog
Over/Under

There’s a nifty little ESPN post on the over-under lines for each team, and whether the experts think the teams will go, well, over or under that win total.

But the interesting thing to me is that if you add up all the over-under totals, you get 2,437.5. There are 30 MLB teams playing 162 games, and since each game can only end in one win, that means there are only 2,430 possible wins in the season.

I think there’s two things to take away from that. One is that over-under bets probably get a lot of action from fans who either overrate their teams, or just pick the over for some sort of karmic reason.

The second is that it makes me wonder how smart of a bet it would be to just bet the under on all 30 teams. There’s definitely a possibility that the Royals and Pirates each lose 120 games, allowing more than half the field to go over, but the odds seem to be in favor of the everyone-under bet. 

Now if I only had a spare $3,000 …

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